Ranking Shaq with the Centers

Only Shaquille O'Neal could steal attention from an exciting NBA finals as an over the hill 39 year old. His impact has been humongous not only on the court but off it too. Just look at the name at the top of the page (Kobe, Tell Me How My ? Tastes!). Watching him over the last 5 years it's easy to think of him just as an outsized personality, but he was maybe the most dominant basketball player of all-time. In the all time pinnacle of centers, where does the Big Aristotle rank? I created a cumulative index to try to find out. And then I changed things a little bit (I'll explain for each change).

My index was a combination of my work on the Top 5 each year, career win shares, MVP share, Basketball-reference's Hall of Fame odds (to include championships), and BBR's Elo player ratings. I altered things a little bit to help some defensive studs out, but pretty much stuck to the results.

There were two big names who maybe should be on the list. Arvydas Sabonis never got a chance to show the world what he could do in his prime, but some suspect he could've been the best center ever. Also, I left Tim Duncan out, even though he's really more a center (I'd probably put him right behind Shaq).

TIER THREE

10. Dwight Howard (5 points in the index)

He proved himself the second best player in the NBA, and with it moved himself into the top 10, knocking Bill Walton (or Willis Reed) out. He and Ewing were the only centers under consideration who haven't won a championship, and everybody else besides Malone has won at least two. Howard's entering his prime, and his time will come.

9. George Mikan (7 points)

Mikan is without a doubt the hardest player to rank on this list. He played in a completely different era, and probably would play something like Aaron Gray if he were in the league now. At the same time, he was the NBA's first superstar, and the center piece of the leagues first dynasty.

8. Patrick Ewing (9 points)

He will always be known for failing to break through (or for his Snickers commercials) but he took the Knicks to the finals twice, and led a renaissance of New York basketball. It's just tough to go up against MJ in your prime.

TIER TWO

7. Moses Malone (25 points)

Moses Malone is often a forgotten name among centers, quickly replaced by Olajuwon in Houston and never living on Dr. J's level in Philly. He peaked in a way that few players ever have. According to my top 5 calculations, Moses was the best player in the NBA in 1978-79, 81-82, and 82-83.

6. David Robinson (28 points)

Robinson was a physical specimen, and is being appreciated even more with advanced statistics. He consistently shows up at the top of Career PER or win shares lists, and can be seen by some methods as one of the best players of all time. He needed Duncan for playoff success though, and in his prime got it taken to him by the next man on this list.

5. Hakeem Olajuwon (24 points)

While his regular season stats aren't quite on par with Robinson or even Malone, taking both of the titles during MJ's break earned him a top 5 spot among greatest centers ever. He beat both Patrick Ewing and Shaq in those finals, and the way he dominated NBA MVP David Robinson forced me to give him a bump up this list.

TIER ONE

4. Shaquille O'Neal (38 points)

Shaq was the best player in the NBA in the immediate post Jordan era, ruling over the league in 1999-00 in a way that few ever have. He could rule games physically, but also had great touch around the hoop. He never quite got all he could out of his basketball potential, but winning 4 rings and being an absolute force for 3 different teams still put him 4th on the list.

3. Bill Russell (37 points)

Russell helped integrate the sport, anchored the greatest dynasty in the history of athletics, and my be the best defensive basketball player ever. A player with 11 championships will never be seen again in any high level team sport.

2. Wilt Chamberlain (44 points)

He occasionally cared more about women or statistics than about winning, but he also once averaged 50 points and 27 rebounds per game, over an entire season. Nobody has had a game like that since him, and that what he used to average! Wilt the Stilt also managed to squeeze in a couple chips around Russell's hogging.

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (46 points)

Kareem was the best player in the NBA for 7 total years, and was the best player in the league for 4 straight seasons from 1970-74, a streak matched only by Michael Jordan and now Lebron James (didn't see that one coming huh?). The NBA's all-time points leader is also the greatest center of all time. For now.

2011 NBA Top 5

Last year at the end of the year I created an index to help figure out the NBA's top 5 players that year. It used the top 5 in Roland Rating, PER, Win Shares, Points Per Game, MVP voting, and the All NBA first team. This year I also added adjusted plus minus, although it's high variance can give some weird results. Here are this year's top 5 players, along with the points they have in the index:

Lebron James - 24

Dwight Howard - 22

Derrick Rose - 9

Kevin Durant - 9

Dwayne Wade - 8

There are a few things that stand out to me. First, Lebron James is once again the best player in the NBA, marking the fourth consecutive year by this index. It was a lot closer this year though as Dwight Howard stepped up his game to become the second best basketball player in the world. Next, the bottom became much more bunched together this year. Rose, Durant, Wade, Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant were all within two points of each other, which is pretty unusual. Finally, Kobe dropped out of the top 5 this year (and his post season performance supports that) marking for the first time a top 5 full of the leagues new stars. This is a generation that never really played in MJ's shadow, and is bringing the league back in the national spotlight. It's a fun group to watch.

Pau Gasol vs Scottie Pippen

There are some silly people out there who've tried comparing Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan. It's not a contest of course, MJ is the G.O.A.T. and Kobe hasn't ever been the best in the league. A more interesting contest is between their number 2s, Scottie Pippen to MJ and Pau Gasol to Kobe. It sounds absurd at first to compare Pau and Scottie, but Pau is one of the most under rated players in the game today and Scottie was over rated in his time.

First off, let's look at their place in my Top 5 ratings. Pau never shows up in the top 5 of any year. Pippen is the 4th best player in 93-94, but that was his best year and more importantly he was his teams star that year (MJ was playing baseball). Still, the edge here goes to Scottie.

Next, let's look at PER, a John Hollinger special. Specifically, let's look at their 3 best years as a #2.

Pau: 22.2 (08-09) 22.9 (09-10) 24.0 (07-08 and this year).

Scottie: 21.0 (95-96) 21.3 (96-97) 21.5 (91-92)

Admittedly, PER undervalues defense some, but the according to Hollinger's stats Pau is still better.

How about Win Shares? Here's each's three best years again.

Pau: 13.9 (08-09) 12.0 (05-06) 11.0 (09-10)

Scottie: 13.1 (96-97) 12.7 (91-92) 12.3 (95-96)

When he plays Pau is better, but thanks to his durability Scottie is more consistent. It's a pretty even draw.

One for Scottie, one for Pau, and one tie makes the two pretty even. Looks like it's a tie, which in a way makes sense. Kobe tried to match Mike with a great #2, a crazy guy (Artest for Rodman), a high level 6th man (Lamar Odom for Toni Kukoc), and of course Phil Jackson. All Kobe has to do now is win 72.

All Time Top 12

A couple weeks ago I posted my top 5 players of the past decade (and made a sporcle quiz!). I've since gone back all the way through 1955 (when data becomes scarce) with results that will get posted at some point. I began wondering if I could use the numbers to create a list of the top players ever to play. Just adding up totals like in the players of the decade post gave an unfair advantage to long careers like Karl Malone and Kareem. So I combined total top 5 points and average position in years ranked (I had a minimum of 5 years, so Kevin Durant who's only been ranked for 1 year has an average of .8). The rankings aren't great, but they bring up interesting ideas.

1	Jordan
2	Abdul-Jabbar
3	Chamberlain
4	Robertson
T5	K. Malone
T5	O'Neal
7	James
8	Pettit
9	Robinson
10	Duncan
11	Bird
12	West

There's also a top 12 using just years being the best in the NBA

	Player	Years	Consecutive	Ties
1	Jordan	10	7	2
2	Kareem	7	4	0
3	Chamberlain	7	3	0
4	James	4	3	0
5	Bird	3	3	0
6	K. Malone	3	3	2
T7	M. Malone	3	2	0
T7	Pettit	3	2	0
T9	Robinson	2	2	0
T9	Shaq	2	2	0
11	Duncan	2	2	1
12	Nowitzki	2	1	0

There are a few interesting things to notice here:

First, it's clear the Michael Jordan is the best player of all time, followed by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar then Wilt Chamberlain. This is a very believable thing without numbers to back it up, and it's solidified here.

Second, Bill Russell and Magic Johnson are missing from both lists. Each suffers from playing in a loaded era (Russell was always stuck behind Robertson and Chamberlain, Magic had Bird and Kareem/Jordan). Both probably also suffer from a lack of plus/minus data for their years because they set a unique style of play for their team. What their absence does indicate though is that both may be over-rated. While each was definitely a top-20 player top 5 may be a little bit of a reach.

Finally, Lebron James is ranked impressively high on both lists, 4th and 7th. It puts him in serious danger of challenging Karl Malone for best player ever to not win a championship ( something which could change this year). Just halfway through his career this is an amazing achievement. He had the highest average score of any player not named Jordan, and is on his way to possibly dethroning our current top 3. It will be an interesting next few years to watch.

Also for funsies, here's where a couple other top-40 players rank in the first ranking:

Tie 16th- Garnett and Nowitzki

18th - Magic

19th - Kobe

Tie 27 - T-Mac

29 - Bill Russell

30 - D-Wade

Tie 34 - Chris Paul

Top NBA players of the last 10 years

A few days ago I posted the top 5 NBA players last year, according to an average of various measures. What happens over the last decade? Here are the last ten years, ties broken first by eliminating PPG, then by counting who appeared in the most categories (with adjustments to roland rating, switched to adjusted +- for 02-03 to 04-05 and dropped before that because neither existed):

	2009-10	2008-09	2007-08	2006-07	2005-06
1	James	James	James	Nowitzki	James
2	Durant	Wade	Paul	Duncan	Bryant
3	Wade	Bryant	Bryant	Bryant	Nowitzki
4	Howard	Paul	Garnett	James	Nash
5	Bryant	Howard	Stoudemire	Nash	Wade

	2004-05	2003-04	2002-03	2001-02	2000-01
1	Nowitzki	Garnett	Duncan	Duncan	O'Neal
2	Duncan	Duncan	McGrady	O'Neal	Iverson
3	O'Neal	Stojakovic	Garnett	McGrady	Duncan
4	Garnett	McGrady	Bryant	Kidd	Webber
5	Nash	Bryant	O'Neal	Nowitzki	Carter

A couple interesting things to note: First, it splits up into the Duncan first half and the Lebron second half (and it surprises me at least how early Lebron was the best). Also interesting is that Dirk Nowitzki had a three year stretch where he may have been the best player in the NBA (robbed of a championship only by some curious 06 officiating, and a sudden collapse in 07). Finally, it's amazing to note that Kobe was not once the best player in the NBA. He's been fairly steady top 3 recently, which is really good, but no where near MJ territory (who was the best player in 10 straight seasons he played, but we'll get to that). So that argument needs to be put to rest.

What does this mean for the decade? Who's the best player?

Giving a player 5 points for first, 4 for second, and so on, here's the top 8:

Rank	Player	Points
1	Duncan	25
2	Lebron	22
3	Bryant	17
4	Dirk	14
5	O'Neal	13
6	Garnett	12
7	McGrady	9
8	Wade	8

Best player of the decade? Still Tim Duncan (there you go George). Yeah, Kobe's third. But the player who really stands out is Lebron James. At just 25 years old, he's already been the best player in the league 3 straight years. Who else has been the best three years running? Jordan of course, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, Larry Bird, and Karl Malone (end of the Jordan era, believe it or not). That means Lebron James has a serious shot at being the best basketball player of all time. And that I'm gonna get tickets when Miami visits the Bay Area.

NBA's Top Five

Who are the top five players in the NBA? There are multiple ways look at it. On voting, you could use the All NBA first team (5 players), or MVP vote shares. Statistically, you could use PER, Win Shares, Roland Rating, or even Points Per Game (weak, but the point of basketball is to score points). For explanation, Win Shares is an estimate of how many wins a player adds to his team (click here for more info) and Roland Rating is basically a hockey style plus minus rating (with adjustments for teammates, or for out preforming opponents, explained here).

What happens this year?

All NBA-Lebron, Kobe, Dwayne Wade, Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant

MVP votes-Lebron, Durant, Kobe, Howard, Wade

Win Shares-Lebron, Durant, Howard, Wade, Dirk Nowitzki

PER-Lebron, Wade, Durant, Chris Bosh, Tim Duncan

PPG-Durant, Lebron, Carmello Anthony, Wade, Kobe

Roland Rating-Lebron, Durant, Wade, Howard, Kobe

Say we give 5 points for first, 4 for second, and so on (All-NBA is 3 points each). For Durant, for example, he would get 3, 4, 4, 3, 5, and 4 points, giving him a total of 23 points. What are the final standings?

1. Lebron James - 27 points

2. Kevin Durant- 23 points

3. Dwayne Wade- 15 points

4. Dwight Howard- 10 points

5. Kobe Bryant- 8 points

Kinda makes sense right? Some might say Kobe should be higher (not in the regular season he wasn't), but it's a fairly accurate assessment of the NBA's top five players.