Today's NFL games

My predictions were in late to The Prediction Tracker due to computer troubles, but for those interested here are my predictions:

Green Bay 24 Chicago 20

As unfortunate as it is, the Packers are a better team. Actual predicted line is 4.35.

Pittsburgh 25 New York 19

After taking down a couple of AFC powers, the Jets will likely finally go down to the Steelers this week. Actual predicted line is 6.00.

The Most Dangerous (Big) Game

It's Big Game week here at Stanford, and in honor of getting my ticket earlier today I'm going to post on one of the most bizarre patterns so far this year, Cal's home and away difference this year. While being just 5-5 and playing terribly in all of their road games, the Golden Bears have managed to run train against opponents at home, even holding the Oregon offense in check last Saturday when they almost stunned the Ducks. Using Points Line Rating (it's easier to calculate on a game by game basis) here's a look at how Cal has preformed at home:

Overall rating: 54.6

49 point win over UC-Davis (16.1)- 65.1 game rating

45 point win over Colorado (39.1)- 84.1

28 point win over UCLA (44.4)- 72.4

33 point win over Arizona St (52.9)- 85.9

2 point loss to Oregon (70.5)- 68.5

Cal has averaged a rating of 75.2 at home this season. Even factoring out usual home field advantage (4 points) that would make them the best team in college football. So sure, Stanford's playing a 5-5 team this week, but even without considering the rivalry, it'll be a dangerous game for the Cardinal.

BCS Rankings and Top Units

Next week the BCS will officially be released (although it can already be calculated easily). How are the computer rankings going to look, and can Boise St. really be number 1? To analyze this I am debuting my margin of victory free rankings (meaning they follow the BCS rules). Here's the top 10 (top 50 are under the new tab up top).

Rank	Team	W	L	Rating	SOS
1	Oklahoma	5	0	42.5	10.62
2	Boise St	5	0	39.51	9.87
3	LSU	6	0	38.88	9.72
4	Missouri	5	0	33.97	8.49
5	TCU	6	0	31.83	7.95
6	Auburn	6	0	25.26	6.31
7	Nevada	6	0	24.62	6.15
8	South Carolina	4	1	23.9	10.4
9	Oregon	6	0	23.05	5.76
10	Oregon St	3	2	22.11	16.76

Surprisingly, this ranking is very different than the MOV rankings, but doesn't necessarily benefit just those with perceived strong schedules. Boise St actually gets quite a bump (explaining why they're BCS number 1 this week) as does Nevada. The biggest boost though goes to number one Oklahoma (up from 23). In the power rankings their close wins over teams like Air Force and Cincinnati anchored the Sooners around 25. Close wins don't make a difference without MOV though, and that sends the Sooners shooting to the top. Also benefitting is Oregon St, who may be just 3-2 but has clearly played the toughest schedule in the nation under both rankings.

Some notable teams don't fare as well though. Here's just a few, with some explanation:

11 Alabama - May have played four games against top 25 teams, but the other two were Duke and San Jose St., lowering their strength of schedule.

19 Ohio State - Their SOS is just slightly lower than Stephen F. Austin's. But they at least have Wisconsin up next week.

32 Iowa - Weak opponents such as Ball State and Eastern Illinois hurt their rankings, but with three tough games coming up their rank could swing in a hurry.

Also for fun, here are the top five units in college football by points line rating:

Offenses

1. Oregon

2. Oklahoma St

3. Boise St

4. Nevada

5. Stanford

Defenses

1. Arizona

2. Alabama

3. TCU

4. Missouri

5. California

This Weekend's Games

Some quick predictions for this weekends most important games:

Stanford 40 USC 20

Is USC really better than UCLA or Notre Dame, both teams Stanford walloped?

Northwestern 24 Purdue 15

Jimmy will tell you more, but for now NU continues to beat up on weak teams.

Arizona St. 39 Washington 28

Az St is highly rated despite being 2-3. Close losses against tough teams, big wins over bad ones. They have a chance to prove themselves this week.

Michigan 34 Michigan St. 31

Does Denard Robinson put Michigan over the top? No, it's actually home field advantage in the Big House.

Florida 26 LSU 18

The battle for SECond place tips towards the Gators.

Wagner 18 Georgetown 16

This game could be close, but once again I have to pick against the Hoyas.

Points Line Rankings System

You may notice that up top among the pages is now my Points Line Rankings System. While not as theoretically sound as my normal rankings system, it does have the advantage of predicting score. It's all explained under How It Works, but here's an example looking at Saturday's Iowa game.

Rank

Team

Total

Off

Def

11

Iowa

62.31

47.603

-14.707

21

Penn State

55.007

33.395

-21.612

Adding offensive rating to the other team's defensive rating gives expected points. For Iowa 47.6-21.6 means they should score about 26 points. Penn State should score about 19 points. To account for home field advantage (about 4 points) we add two points to the home team and take two from the away team. Since the games at Iowa, that means the predicted score is:

Iowa 28 Penn State 17

Here are a few other predicted scores for this weekend:

Stanford 33 Oregon 32

A high scoring battle for front runner rights in the Pac-10 race.

Northwestern 36 Minnesota 13

Northwestern is looking to prove that it really is a top 25 team. Minnesota is on the other end.

Alabama 29 Florida 19

Alabama looks to hold on to it's top ranking by making full use of the second best defense in the nation.

USC 45 Washington 26

Jake Locker may be able to put up points, but the Washington Huskies have less defense than Reggie Bush does Heisman Trophies.

Oklahoma 31 Texas 24

The Sooners look to make it back to back losses for the underachieving Longhorns.

Colgate 27 Georgetown 25

Although both rankings systems have Georgetown as the better team, the home field advantage puts Colgate over top. By both rankings. Yet another chance for the Hoyas to defy my predictions.

Games of the 25th

I have a new alternative ratings system in the works, and while probably not being quite as good, it does have the advantage of predicting actual scores. While it's not ready to debut totally yet, here are some forecasts for tomorrow.

Stanford 50 @Notre Dame 25

Stanford has the best offense in the nation, and is gonna put it on display again tomorrow against a mediocre Notre Dame defense.

@Iowa 38 Ball State 10

Another very uneven battle between with an Iowa team eager to avenge it's loss.

Central Michigan 10 @Northwestern 9

Two good defenses could put on a show tomorrow.

Holy Cross 12 @Georgetown 0

Might be a rough homecoming for Georgetown.

Alabama 31 @ Arkansas 12

Alabama shows why it's in the national title hunt.

With just a few games to rely on, and just a few hours of work on the new ratings, these picks are kinda rough still. I don't believe the Northwestern one, or that Holy Cross's defense is that good. Still maybe the numbers know more than I do.