Sunday, April 3, 2011

Are the Spurs tanking on purpose?

Okay, almost certainly not it'd be kinda dumb. But here's an interesting thought. As of a few days ago the number 1 seed in the west had to play a dangerous Memphis team, followed by either the super hot Nuggets or Kendrick Perkins Thunder. The two seed though got New Orleans w/o David West or maybe the Trail Blazers just hanging on, followed by a struggling Mavericks team. Is that enough to over come home court in the third round? The playoff odds (now adapted for the NBA, with home court!) give us a good look:
With Spurs #1, Lakers #2
Spurs are champs 15.1%
Lakers are champs 14.7%
With Lakers #1, Spurs #2
Spurs are champs 15.6%
Lakers are champs 13.4%

So with last Wednesday's standings it actually is beneficial for the Spurs to lose. On the whole though, it's risky because right now the Hornets have dropped into eighth, and the clear goal is to avoid the Grizzlies.
Another possible winner here is the Bulls, who would go from 28.0% to 28.8% if they get home court advantage over the Spurs in the finals. For a team that was given little shot earlier in the year, the Bulls have really come on strong over the last month. Maybe there is an advantage to playing all the way through the season.

1 comment:

  1. Very timely - makes me suspect something was up either consciously or subconsciously.