Sunday, May 1, 2011

NBA Second Round Odds and Analysis 2011

The first round of the NBA playoffs has ended (and the second round actually started, oh well), so here are my odds for the remaining teams going forwards:

Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4
Chicago 0.932 0.541 0.379
Atlanta 0.068 0.006 0.001
Boston 0.302 0.103 0.052
Miami 0.698 0.35 0.246
Memphis 0.409 0.131 0.029
Oklahoma City 0.591 0.222 0.06
Dallas 0.366 0.214 0.064
LA Lakers 0.634 0.433 0.17

Many teams have drastically increased their odds at the championship, but the effect is due more to the Spurs loss (my second most likely upset last round!) than to overcoming any hurdles so far. Here are the current Championship odds:

Championship Odds
Chicago 0.379
Miami 0.246
LA Lakers 0.17
Dallas 0.064
Oklahoma City 0.06
Boston 0.052
Memphis 0.029
Atlanta 0.001

Chicago has emerged as even more of a favorite than before, and they can thank Atlanta for that. While all signs indicated that Dwight Howard and Orlando would meet the Bulls in the second round, Atlanta pulled a shocking upset by tricking the Magic into not making any of their threes. Threes were never a specialty for the Bulls though, and they should easily take care of the Hawks (who in reality kinda stink) on their way to the conference finals. Because they have such an easy schedule, along with their #2 power rating, the Bulls have emerged as a true favorite.
The Lakers have also upped their odds, both through dispatching a decent first round foe, and by gaining home court advantage in the West. A Bulls Lakers finals may be in the horizon.
Last round I gave three teams to look for going forwards, (one hit, but the other two missed wildly). The round there are two teams that are getting underestimated. I swear I picked these before today's games.
Miami: People are down on the Heat because they haven't lived up to their lofty expectations. Nonetheless, they are number one in the power rankings and have home court advantage. They should take care of business relatively quickly over the Celtics. Today's 9 point win belonged to the Heat the whole way, and is a trend that will likely continue.
Memphis: The Grizzlies are not the favorites in the second round, but are the most likely team to pull an upset. The have even become a dark horse championship contender almost on the level of the Celtics and Thunder. With their game 1 win, they now have a 60.8% chance of winning the series.
Last year the second round spat in the face of my rankings, giving me only 1 winner and adding three sweeps to boot. Things look like they should go better this year, but no winner are decided. What is certain though is that there are four terrific matchups to watch in the second round. I'm pumped.
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