Thursday, May 5, 2011

One Year (plus)

I missed it by four days, but May 1st was the one year anniversary of Kobe, Tell Me How My Stats Taste (at the time it was Shaq's Big Brickhouse). While there were a couple of breaks throughout the year, the posts have been coming at a surprisingly regular frequency and I think the quality of work now far surpasses what I would've imagined when I started. I'm not going to recap the work (that was done well in the 100th Post) but I am going to provide something that I could not have a year ago: mid series odds.
Bulls vs Hawks
Current Standings: tied 1-1
Favorite's odds: Bulls win 86.9%
*Impact of game 3: .226
The Bulls were dealt a shocking blow in game 1, but they're enough better it should just be a bump in the road.
Heat vs Celtics
Current Standings: Miami leads 2-0
Favorite's odds: Heat win 88.3%
Impact of game 3: .171
Unless something drastic happens (Delonte West & Lebron's mom part 2?) the Heat are gonna be in the eastern conference finals.
Thunder vs Grizzlies
Current Standings: tied 1-1
Favorite's odds: Thunder win 51.3%
Impact of game 3: .383
The Grizz's game 1 win makes the series pretty even odds going forwards. Game 3 will decide a lot.
Lakers vs Mavericks
Current Standings: Dallas leads 2-0
Favorite's odds: Mavs win 78.3%
Impact of game 3: .298
One dynasty fell in round one. The Lakers need to win game 3 in Dallas to keep a second one alive.

*Impact measures how much of a series swings on a given game. Every game 7 has an impact of 1, because the winner wins the series. It's a teams odds of taking the series with a win minus their odds with a loss. A bigger number means more importance.
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