Sunday, May 15, 2011

True Hoop 2011 Third Round

As the playoffs go on the picks necessarily get harder, and the odds get worse. The Bulls-Heat series is a prime example. Under the ratings currently posted, the Bulls win just over 50% of the time, and the most likely outcome is Miami in 6. In order to nail this pick down though, I started playing with the ratings a little bit. Turns out that for the NBA they are overly generous to teams that win low scoring contests (read: The Bulls), so I tweaked things a little bit. Now the power ratings match up a little closer to the points ratings (almost exactly for Bulls Heat it turns out) and favor the Heat to win the series 53.1% of the time. On the other side of things, no matter the results of Game 7 Dallas will be favored to win in 7 games (although by just .05% over 5 games against the Griz). So for round 3 I have:
Miami in 6
Dallas in 7
Neither of these look to catch me up much on the top half of TrueHoop guys, but if OkCity wins tomorrow I'll pass David Berri despite picking fewer winners than him (master of series length!). And this point, I'm rooting against myself anyways, GO BULLS!
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