Unlikely Upsets?

Last Saturday James Madison's upset over Virginia Tech sent the college football world (and Boise State's championship hopes) into turmoil. How could a school from the FCS defeat what was thought to be one of the nation's best teams? It's not as absurd as it first appears. Last year there were 9 FCS schools in the top 100 of my rankings, led by 56th ranked Villanova which was better than over half of the FBS teams. Added to the list of 9 below are a couple of upset specialists for comparison.

Rank	School	Rating
56	Villanova	83.645
64	William & Mary	63.346
79	Richmond	44.812
85	Southern Illinois	38.847
92	Montana	33.226
94	Elon	31.99
96	South Dakota St	28.592
97	Jacksonville St	28.303
99	NW Missouri St	27.712
102	Appalachian St	24.035
112	James Madison	19.09

These mean that on a neutral field 2009 Villanova would've beaten 2009 Alabama 7.92% of the time. 2009 James Madison would've beaten 2009 VaTech 3.08% of the time. These chances are small but upsets of this type do happen, and sometimes might not even be upsets. Maybe that explains why it's so easy for teams like Boise St. to be national powers after joining the FBS only 15 years ago.