Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Masta' P's Rams

On request, I've taken a look at the St. Louis Rams hopes for the 2010 season. Taking the NFL team ratings from last year (St. Louis was last, of course), I calculated the expected wins for St. Louis this year. It's rough because it doesn't account for any roster changes, but honestly Sammy Bradford won't add much yet. Turns out, the Rams can expect about 3 wins next year (3.05) even without any improvement. They benefit from what should be an easy schedule, and actually a mathematical curiosity. Using strength of schedule only the Rams would expect 2.75 wins. However, they're so much worse than the best teams that they have basically no chance of winning whether it's against the best team in the league, or the 10th best. When they play the best teams though, it increases their strength of schedule (decreasing estimated wins) without actually having a real effect on their likely number of wins. So Masta' P, there's a little on your Rams.
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