Thursday, September 30, 2010

Points Line Rankings System

You may notice that up top among the pages is now my Points Line Rankings System. While not as theoretically sound as my normal rankings system, it does have the advantage of predicting score. It's all explained under How It Works, but here's an example looking at Saturday's Iowa game.

Rank Team Total Off Def
11 Iowa 62.31 47.603 -14.707
21 Penn State 55.007 33.395 -21.612

Adding offensive rating to the other team's defensive rating gives expected points. For Iowa 47.6-21.6 means they should score about 26 points. Penn State should score about 19 points. To account for home field advantage (about 4 points) we add two points to the home team and take two from the away team. Since the games at Iowa, that means the predicted score is:

Iowa 28 Penn State 17

Here are a few other predicted scores for this weekend:

Stanford 33 Oregon 32
A high scoring battle for front runner rights in the Pac-10 race.

Northwestern 36 Minnesota 13
Northwestern is looking to prove that it really is a top 25 team. Minnesota is on the other end.

Alabama 29 Florida 19
Alabama looks to hold on to it's top ranking by making full use of the second best defense in the nation.

USC 45 Washington 26
Jake Locker may be able to put up points, but the Washington Huskies have less defense than Reggie Bush does Heisman Trophies.

Oklahoma 31 Texas 24
The Sooners look to make it back to back losses for the underachieving Longhorns.

Colgate 27 Georgetown 25
Although both rankings systems have Georgetown as the better team, the home field advantage puts Colgate over top. By both rankings. Yet another chance for the Hoyas to defy my predictions.

No comments:

Post a Comment