Sunday, September 5, 2010

MLB Playoff race updates

With only 25 games left or so, it's time to look at the odds in various playoff races. These were created using records before today, and using the Pythagorean expected winning percentage to predict future records, here are odds based off of simulation (strength of schedule is not accounted for, and could make a difference with only a few games left).

AL WC Win Odds
TBR 98.67
BOS 0.67
CHW 0.64
NL WC Win Odds
PHI 79.94
SFG 16.41
STL 2.56
COL 1.1
NL West Win Odds
SDP 77.91
SFG 20.45
COL 1.59
LAD 0.06

Tampa Bay seems like a lock for the AL Wild Card, and the Phillies are starting to pull away in the NL since the last simulation, but the Giants are still sitting at 37% odds because of the Padres monster 10 game losing streak. They're actually even close now because again today the Padres lost and the Giants won, so they're only one game back. Doing just a two team analysis of the Giants and the Padres though, even updated through today, the giants still have just a 29.2 percent chance of overtaking the Padres. Why so low? Largely, even though the Padres have lose 10 straight, they still are theoretically a better team than the Giants (especially by run differential). The Padres have allowed fewer runs than any other MLB team, and because of it should do fairly well over their last 27 games, despite losing 10 straight (also unlucky, they should've won 1.4 over that span by the span's runs differential). Hopefully it turns out otherwise, but I'm not buying my Giant's playoff tickets yet.


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