Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Big East Men's Tournament

I'm a little late for the Big East, but it's here nonetheless:

TEAM Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5
Pittsburgh 1 1 0.65 0.411 0.25
Louisville 1 1 0.585 0.322 0.163
Syracuse 1 1 0.661 0.31 0.163
Notre Dame 1 1 0.565 0.286 0.137
West Virginia 1 0.598 0.266 0.132 0.059
Cincinnati 1 0.582 0.265 0.123 0.054
Georgetown 1 0.547 0.194 0.095 0.043
Connecticut 0.86 0.433 0.155 0.076 0.035
St John's 1 0.593 0.22 0.076 0.03
Villanova 0.768 0.367 0.16 0.071 0.029
Marquette 0.699 0.321 0.13 0.059 0.025
Seton Hall 0.601 0.268 0.086 0.026 0.009
Rutgers 0.399 0.139 0.033 0.007 0.002
Providence 0.301 0.081 0.018 0.005 0.001
South Florida 0.232 0.051 0.01 0.002 0
DePaul 0.14 0.02 0.002 0 0

As expected from the league with 60% of my 11-20 ranked teams, there's no clear favorite here. The advantages of a bye do stand out though, as 15th ranked Notre Dame is far more likely to win than 16th ranked West Virginia. So while many teams have a small chance of winning, the four seeds with two byes are by far the most likely to win the whole thing. Meanwhile the Hoyas have an outside shot at the title, but it looks like they might have to save it for an NCAA run.
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