Sunday, March 6, 2011

Pac-10 Tournament Men's

With the NCAA tournament coming up I've developed (about time) a system for predicting performance in a tournament. Here, using game data through Friday, are the victory odds for the PAC-10 men's tournament:

TEAM Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4
Washington 1 0.7 0.518 0.352
Arizona 1 0.764 0.483 0.241
UCLA 1 0.686 0.249 0.121
USC 1 0.557 0.254 0.101
Washington St 1 0.3 0.166 0.08
California 1 0.443 0.179 0.062
Stanford 0.641 0.174 0.068 0.019
Oregon 0.549 0.182 0.041 0.013
Arizona St 0.451 0.131 0.025 0.007
Oregon St 0.359 0.062 0.016 0.003

Washington has rated extremely highly throughout the season, and the system has faith in them still (this is before the USC loss). They have been somewhat unlucky in some close losses, but they've largely just beat up on bad teams. Fortunately for them, the PAC-10 has plenty of bad teams. Among them, the Stanford Cardinal still hang on for an automatic bid (1.9%!). Hey, something's better than nothing.
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