Bracket Odds 2011

Who wins the tournament? How likely is it that BYU makes the Final Four? Which 12-5 upset has the best chance of happening? Here are the odds for each team to win in each round in the 2011 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.

(A quick review on how to read this, if Ohio St has a .368 under Rd 4, then they have a 36.8 percent chance of winning in round 4 {making it to the Final Four}).

TEAM Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 EAST 1 Ohio St 0.977 0.768 0.526 0.368 0.228 0.148 16 UT San Antonio 0.023 0.002 0 0 0 0 8 George Mason 0.455 0.097 0.035 0.013 0.004 0.001 9 Villanova 0.545 0.133 0.053 0.022 0.007 0.003 5 West Virginia 0.577 0.251 0.085 0.04 0.015 0.006 12 Clemson 0.423 0.156 0.044 0.017 0.006 0.002 4 Kentucky 0.884 0.571 0.254 0.148 0.074 0.039 13 Princeton 0.116 0.023 0.002 0 0 0 6 Xavier 0.417 0.16 0.054 0.014 0.004 0.001 11 Marquette 0.583 0.267 0.11 0.035 0.012 0.005 3 Syracuse 0.86 0.542 0.275 0.112 0.049 0.023 14 Indiana St 0.14 0.03 0.005 0 0 0 7 Washington 0.771 0.468 0.287 0.13 0.063 0.032 10 Georgia 0.229 0.077 0.025 0.005 0.001 0 2 North Carolina 0.866 0.435 0.241 0.095 0.04 0.018 15 Long Island 0.134 0.02 0.003 0 0 0 WEST 1 Duke 0.971 0.785 0.503 0.357 0.214 0.136 16 Hampton 0.029 0.003 0 0 0 0 8 Michigan 0.531 0.117 0.038 0.015 0.004 0.001 9 Tennessee 0.469 0.094 0.029 0.01 0.003 0.001 5 Arizona 0.776 0.296 0.101 0.048 0.018 0.007 12 Memphis 0.224 0.038 0.005 0.001 0 0 4 Texas 0.861 0.623 0.316 0.207 0.112 0.065 13 Oakland 0.139 0.044 0.007 0.002 0 0 6 Cincinnati 0.535 0.27 0.13 0.043 0.016 0.006 11 Missouri 0.465 0.219 0.099 0.03 0.01 0.004 3 Connecticut 0.839 0.478 0.256 0.097 0.04 0.018 14 Bucknell 0.161 0.033 0.006 0.001 0 0 7 Temple 0.526 0.196 0.079 0.021 0.006 0.002 10 Penn St 0.474 0.166 0.063 0.015 0.004 0.001 2 San Diego St 0.89 0.615 0.362 0.152 0.069 0.033 15 N Colorado 0.11 0.024 0.004 0 0 0 SOUTHWEST 1 Kansas 0.96 0.692 0.471 0.318 0.213 0.121 16 Boston Univ 0.04 0.004 0 0 0 0 8 UNLV 0.459 0.131 0.058 0.025 0.011 0.003 9 Illinois 0.541 0.173 0.083 0.039 0.018 0.007 5 Vanderbilt 0.626 0.259 0.085 0.036 0.016 0.005 12 Richmond 0.374 0.115 0.027 0.008 0.003 0.001 4 Louisville 0.887 0.602 0.274 0.155 0.087 0.039 13 Morehead St 0.113 0.024 0.003 0 0 0 6 Georgetown 0.584 0.241 0.116 0.042 0.018 0.006 11 USC 0.416 0.142 0.057 0.017 0.006 0.002 3 Purdue 0.921 0.606 0.367 0.177 0.1 0.045 14 St Peter's 0.079 0.011 0.001 0 0 0 7 Texas A&M 0.505 0.197 0.073 0.022 0.008 0.002 10 Florida St 0.495 0.191 0.07 0.021 0.008 0.002 2 Notre Dame 0.884 0.587 0.312 0.14 0.075 0.032 15 Akron 0.116 0.024 0.003 0 0 0 SOUTHEAST 1 Pittsburgh 0.931 0.74 0.485 0.325 0.176 0.088 16 UNC Asheville 0.069 0.015 0.002 0 0 0 8 Butler 0.562 0.147 0.053 0.02 0.005 0.001 9 Old Dominion 0.438 0.097 0.029 0.009 0.002 0 5 Kansas St 0.511 0.22 0.086 0.04 0.014 0.004 12 Utah St 0.489 0.205 0.078 0.036 0.012 0.004 4 Wisconsin 0.68 0.431 0.218 0.131 0.061 0.026 13 Belmont 0.32 0.144 0.049 0.02 0.006 0.002 6 St John's 0.503 0.206 0.1 0.036 0.011 0.003 11 Gonzaga 0.497 0.202 0.098 0.035 0.011 0.003 3 BYU 0.859 0.559 0.354 0.178 0.081 0.033 14 Wofford 0.141 0.033 0.007 0.001 0 0 7 UCLA 0.47 0.211 0.082 0.027 0.008 0.002 10 Michigan St 0.53 0.253 0.105 0.037 0.011 0.003 2 Florida 0.846 0.503 0.248 0.105 0.04 0.013 15 Santa Barbara 0.154 0.033 0.005 0.001 0 0

I'll talk more about trends here later, but there are a few things that stand out for now. The strength of the 4 seeds vs the weakness of the 2 seeds indicates they should probably switch places. Washington has an impressive push to go far. Thanks to easier schedules, all of the #1s are favorites to make the Final Four (if not by much). And THE most likely champion is... Ohio State.

How would my computer fill out a bracket? It's all here.

You'll notice it's a lot of chalk, but that's what you get with a computer trying to max out expected value.