Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Bracket Odds 2011

Who wins the tournament? How likely is it that BYU makes the Final Four? Which 12-5 upset has the best chance of happening? Here are the odds for each team to win in each round in the 2011 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
(A quick review on how to read this, if Ohio St has a .368 under Rd 4, then they have a 36.8 percent chance of winning in round 4 {making it to the Final Four}).
TEAM Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6
EAST
1 Ohio St 0.977 0.768 0.526 0.368 0.228 0.148
16 UT San Antonio 0.023 0.002 0 0 0 0
8 George Mason 0.455 0.097 0.035 0.013 0.004 0.001
9 Villanova 0.545 0.133 0.053 0.022 0.007 0.003
5 West Virginia 0.577 0.251 0.085 0.04 0.015 0.006
12 Clemson 0.423 0.156 0.044 0.017 0.006 0.002
4 Kentucky 0.884 0.571 0.254 0.148 0.074 0.039
13 Princeton 0.116 0.023 0.002 0 0 0
6 Xavier 0.417 0.16 0.054 0.014 0.004 0.001
11 Marquette 0.583 0.267 0.11 0.035 0.012 0.005
3 Syracuse 0.86 0.542 0.275 0.112 0.049 0.023
14 Indiana St 0.14 0.03 0.005 0 0 0
7 Washington 0.771 0.468 0.287 0.13 0.063 0.032
10 Georgia 0.229 0.077 0.025 0.005 0.001 0
2 North Carolina 0.866 0.435 0.241 0.095 0.04 0.018
15 Long Island 0.134 0.02 0.003 0 0 0
WEST
1 Duke 0.971 0.785 0.503 0.357 0.214 0.136
16 Hampton 0.029 0.003 0 0 0 0
8 Michigan 0.531 0.117 0.038 0.015 0.004 0.001
9 Tennessee 0.469 0.094 0.029 0.01 0.003 0.001
5 Arizona 0.776 0.296 0.101 0.048 0.018 0.007
12 Memphis 0.224 0.038 0.005 0.001 0 0
4 Texas 0.861 0.623 0.316 0.207 0.112 0.065
13 Oakland 0.139 0.044 0.007 0.002 0 0
6 Cincinnati 0.535 0.27 0.13 0.043 0.016 0.006
11 Missouri 0.465 0.219 0.099 0.03 0.01 0.004
3 Connecticut 0.839 0.478 0.256 0.097 0.04 0.018
14 Bucknell 0.161 0.033 0.006 0.001 0 0
7 Temple 0.526 0.196 0.079 0.021 0.006 0.002
10 Penn St 0.474 0.166 0.063 0.015 0.004 0.001
2 San Diego St 0.89 0.615 0.362 0.152 0.069 0.033
15 N Colorado 0.11 0.024 0.004 0 0 0
SOUTHWEST
1 Kansas 0.96 0.692 0.471 0.318 0.213 0.121
16 Boston Univ 0.04 0.004 0 0 0 0
8 UNLV 0.459 0.131 0.058 0.025 0.011 0.003
9 Illinois 0.541 0.173 0.083 0.039 0.018 0.007
5 Vanderbilt 0.626 0.259 0.085 0.036 0.016 0.005
12 Richmond 0.374 0.115 0.027 0.008 0.003 0.001
4 Louisville 0.887 0.602 0.274 0.155 0.087 0.039
13 Morehead St 0.113 0.024 0.003 0 0 0
6 Georgetown 0.584 0.241 0.116 0.042 0.018 0.006
11 USC 0.416 0.142 0.057 0.017 0.006 0.002
3 Purdue 0.921 0.606 0.367 0.177 0.1 0.045
14 St Peter's 0.079 0.011 0.001 0 0 0
7 Texas A&M 0.505 0.197 0.073 0.022 0.008 0.002
10 Florida St 0.495 0.191 0.07 0.021 0.008 0.002
2 Notre Dame 0.884 0.587 0.312 0.14 0.075 0.032
15 Akron 0.116 0.024 0.003 0 0 0
SOUTHEAST
1 Pittsburgh 0.931 0.74 0.485 0.325 0.176 0.088
16 UNC Asheville 0.069 0.015 0.002 0 0 0
8 Butler 0.562 0.147 0.053 0.02 0.005 0.001
9 Old Dominion 0.438 0.097 0.029 0.009 0.002 0
5 Kansas St 0.511 0.22 0.086 0.04 0.014 0.004
12 Utah St 0.489 0.205 0.078 0.036 0.012 0.004
4 Wisconsin 0.68 0.431 0.218 0.131 0.061 0.026
13 Belmont 0.32 0.144 0.049 0.02 0.006 0.002
6 St John's 0.503 0.206 0.1 0.036 0.011 0.003
11 Gonzaga 0.497 0.202 0.098 0.035 0.011 0.003
3 BYU 0.859 0.559 0.354 0.178 0.081 0.033
14 Wofford 0.141 0.033 0.007 0.001 0 0
7 UCLA 0.47 0.211 0.082 0.027 0.008 0.002
10 Michigan St 0.53 0.253 0.105 0.037 0.011 0.003
2 Florida 0.846 0.503 0.248 0.105 0.04 0.013
15 Santa Barbara 0.154 0.033 0.005 0.001 0 0








I'll talk more about trends here later, but there are a few things that stand out for now. The strength of the 4 seeds vs the weakness of the 2 seeds indicates they should probably switch places. Washington has an impressive push to go far. Thanks to easier schedules, all of the #1s are favorites to make the Final Four (if not by much). And THE most likely champion is... Ohio State.
How would my computer fill out a bracket? It's all here.
You'll notice it's a lot of chalk, but that's what you get with a computer trying to max out expected value.
Reaction:

No comments:

Post a Comment