Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Final Four Odds and Analysis

Okay, I haven't fared well so far, but I still ran the bracket predictor for final four teams (both Men's and Women's). Who gonna be the champ?
Men's Odds
Kentucky 46.7
Connecticut 30.1
Butler 17.8
VCU 5.4

Kentucky was actually (yeah Dad, actually) the sixth highest rated team in the polls, and a has had a reasonable chance to win it all along. Now they should definitely be considered the favorites, but as this tournament has shown anybody can win (even VCU, although the odds are still not good).

Women's Odds
Connecticut 47.7
Stanford 26.9
Texas A&M 17.7
Notre Dame 7.7

The odds look shockingly similar to the men's odds, but the women's tournament has been light on upsets. Why are they so spread out? There are two reasons: first, the top few women's teams are comparatively better than the top few men's teams (look at the power ratings), so UConn and Stanford spread it out a little bit. The best teams are also on opposite sides of the bracket, as opposed to the men where either Butler or VCU has to make the final. Either way, both final fours look to be exciting with a clear favorite but a couple strong underdogs.
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1 comment:

  1. A few people have actually found this searching for odds that Stanford beats Texas A&M, so here are first round favorites for each game:
    Stanford (56.8%)
    Connecticut (76.8%)

    Kentucky(58.9%)
    Butler(66.1%)

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