Tuesday, October 12, 2010

BCS Rankings and Top Units

Next week the BCS will officially be released (although it can already be calculated easily). How are the computer rankings going to look, and can Boise St. really be number 1? To analyze this I am debuting my margin of victory free rankings (meaning they follow the BCS rules). Here's the top 10 (top 50 are under the new tab up top).

Rank Team W L Rating SOS
1 Oklahoma 5 0 42.5 10.62
2 Boise St 5 0 39.51 9.87
3 LSU 6 0 38.88 9.72
4 Missouri 5 0 33.97 8.49
5 TCU 6 0 31.83 7.95
6 Auburn 6 0 25.26 6.31
7 Nevada 6 0 24.62 6.15
8 South Carolina 4 1 23.9 10.4
9 Oregon 6 0 23.05 5.76
10 Oregon St 3 2 22.11 16.76

Surprisingly, this ranking is very different than the MOV rankings, but doesn't necessarily benefit just those with perceived strong schedules. Boise St actually gets quite a bump (explaining why they're BCS number 1 this week) as does Nevada. The biggest boost though goes to number one Oklahoma (up from 23). In the power rankings their close wins over teams like Air Force and Cincinnati anchored the Sooners around 25. Close wins don't make a difference without MOV though, and that sends the Sooners shooting to the top. Also benefitting is Oregon St, who may be just 3-2 but has clearly played the toughest schedule in the nation under both rankings.
Some notable teams don't fare as well though. Here's just a few, with some explanation:
11 Alabama - May have played four games against top 25 teams, but the other two were Duke and San Jose St., lowering their strength of schedule.
19 Ohio State - Their SOS is just slightly lower than Stephen F. Austin's. But they at least have Wisconsin up next week.
32 Iowa - Weak opponents such as Ball State and Eastern Illinois hurt their rankings, but with three tough games coming up their rank could swing in a hurry.

Also for fun, here are the top five units in college football by points line rating:
Offenses
1. Oregon
2. Oklahoma St
3. Boise St
4. Nevada
5. Stanford

Defenses
1. Arizona
2. Alabama
3. TCU
4. Missouri
5. California
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