Saturday, October 30, 2010

Who Makes The BCS?

With an insight into non-MoV rankings, it's possible to predict what it would take to get top level teams Boise St or TCU into the BCS championship game, despite the system. Here's how a few teams would rank if they finished the season with the projected records and their opponents maintained roughly consistent ratings:
29- 2 loss Oklahoma
28- 1 loss LSU, undefeated Oregon
26- undefeated Boise St, 1 loss Alabama
25- undefeated TCU, 2 loss Missouri
Okay, so Oklahoma is a little overrated (the Big 12 as a whole. The same thing happened with the Pac 10 last year.) Voters would also never put a 2 loss team over undefeated teams (unless it was Utah). The predictions are supported though by inputting games into the Colley Matrix, a ranking used by the BCS that usually overrates undefeated teams. I would rate team's chance to get into the title game as follows:

1. Any of the undefeated BCS schools (Auburn, Oregon, Missouri, Michigan St. in order).
2. A one loss Big 12 champion (Oklahoma, Nebraska, Missouri, maybe even Oklahoma St.).
3. Undefeated Boise St.
4. A one loss SEC champion (Alabama, Auburn, LSU).
5. Undefeated TCU.
6. Anybody else.

The shame here is that while TCU may be the best team in the country, they likely won't get a shot at a national championship. One of Alabama, Auburn, or LSU will likely end the season with just one loss, and there will probably be another undefeated team. Too bad a playoff would take too much student athlete academic time. Over winter break.
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