Sunday, October 24, 2010

College Football Top 25 10/24

Many people say that the number 1 team lost this week, but here at Kobe, Tell Me How My Stats Taste we saw the Missouri "upset" coming. But there are a few changes up top, and other teams have solidified their ranking.

Rank Team W L Rating SOS
1 TCU 8 0 602.51 34.45
2 Oregon 7 0 529.32 35.69
3 Boise St 6 0 491.91 29.78
4 Missouri 7 0 468.61 58.05
5 Alabama 7 1 449.01 58
6 Ohio State 7 1 384.28 36.27
7 Utah 7 0 347.57 19.41
8 Stanford 6 1 335.04 61.5
9 Nebraska 6 1 329.63 49.22
10 Arizona 6 1 319.09 50.98
11 California 4 3 288.72 82.32
12 Oklahoma 6 1 260.65 89.48
13 Iowa 5 2 242.98 41.21
14 Southern Cal 5 2 231.64 74.04
15 Auburn 8 0 220.96 67.89
16 South Carolina 5 2 216.92 76.42
17 Florida St 6 1 213.72 37.92
18 Oklahoma St 6 1 212.41 51.55
19 Virginia Tech 6 2 194.03 40.67
20 Miami FL 5 2 189.32 59.49
21 Michigan St 8 0 181.61 37.64
22 Texas A&M 4 3 174.16 58.16
23 LSU 7 1 173.94 62.49
24 Arkansas 5 2 168.4 62.26
25 Florida 4 3 166.39 78.21

Up top again is TCU which extended it's lead this week. If you're not convinced by the Horned Frogs yet, check out their 38-7 win over Air Force. Air Force has been ranked by the AP off and on this season, and only lost to Oklahoma by 2 points, yet TCU destroyed them. Sounds like something the best team in the nation might do. Unfortunately for TCU, voters don't realize that, and are okay letting a now over rated Auburn team jump them in the polls.
There are a couple of other surprises in these rankings. One is the California Golden Bears, who somehow show up at number 11. Honestly though, nobody knows what to make of them, they can't decide whether to kick butt or not show up. Apparently my computer thinks they're good.
Also surprising are the Auburn Tigers ranked down at number 15, even though they're likely to be either 1 or 2 in the BCS this week. Why are they so low? Citing 3 point wins over Kentucky, Mississippi, and Clemson (in overtime!) I'd ask why they're so highly ranked (LSU's not that good).
A few other teams of interest:
30 Wisconsin 7 1 131.38 43.89
42 Texas 4 3 89.49 62.1
53 Iowa St 4 4 60.35 98.5
54 Washington 3 4 60.23 126.3
64 Northwestern 5 2 46.72 22.48
438 Georgetown DC 3 5 0.43 0.65

Why is Wisconsin ranked so low? A fairly weak schedule, and close wins (two by 1 point) are to blame. I'd expect another loss or two from them by the end of the year, even with a mediocre schedule.
Looking into the BCS this week, we can estimate the computer rankings based off the no MoV rankings. Here's the Top 10:

Rank Team W L Rating SOS
1 Missouri 7 0 38.24 9.56
2 Auburn 8 0 32.27 8.06
3 Oklahoma 6 1 30.27 11.24
4 TCU 8 0 28.23 7.05
5 LSU 7 1 23.96 8.47
6 Boise St 6 0 23.65 5.91
7 Michigan St 8 0 22.08 5.52
8 Oregon 7 0 19.55 4.88
9 Nebraska 6 1 18.75 6.96
10 Alabama 7 1 18.62 6.58

Missouri will get rewarded for their win over Oklahoma, and Auburn also sneaks up near the top. Interesting to note is Oregon's low ranking, which I expect to be true in most computer polls, possibly costing them the BCS number 1. Also important is TCU's 4th place ranking. It looks possible that the BCS won't even give the best team a chance this year.
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