Tuesday, November 16, 2010

The Most Dangerous (Big) Game

It's Big Game week here at Stanford, and in honor of getting my ticket earlier today I'm going to post on one of the most bizarre patterns so far this year, Cal's home and away difference this year. While being just 5-5 and playing terribly in all of their road games, the Golden Bears have managed to run train against opponents at home, even holding the Oregon offense in check last Saturday when they almost stunned the Ducks. Using Points Line Rating (it's easier to calculate on a game by game basis) here's a look at how Cal has preformed at home:
Overall rating: 54.6
49 point win over UC-Davis (16.1)- 65.1 game rating
45 point win over Colorado (39.1)- 84.1
28 point win over UCLA (44.4)- 72.4
33 point win over Arizona St (52.9)- 85.9
2 point loss to Oregon (70.5)- 68.5
Cal has averaged a rating of 75.2 at home this season. Even factoring out usual home field advantage (4 points) that would make them the best team in college football. So sure, Stanford's playing a 5-5 team this week, but even without considering the rivalry, it'll be a dangerous game for the Cardinal.
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