Monday, May 31, 2010

NBA Finals

First off, in a nod to Tyler Dawson, let's point out that I said neither the Celtics nor Lakers would make the finals. The Lakers had a pretty reasonable shot, so we can assume that's just random variation (and remember, they're two tips away from two game sevens). The Celtics have shown an impressive ability to "turn it on" in a way that they didn't have during the season. Partially it's recovery from injuries, partially it's Rondo's emergence, but I also think the Celtics are just playing better now, and the Power Ranking is only just an average over the season. With that said, here are the odds on how the series turns out.
Lakers: 60.9%
in 4: 7.6
in 5: 12.4
in 6: 20.8
in 7: 20.0

Boston: 31.9%
in 4: 4.3
in 5: 12.1
in 6: 11.3
in 7: 11.5

Unique to the NBA finals is the 2-3-2 format, unlike the 2-2-1-1-1 format of the earlier series, which gives these odds a little bit of a different flavor than ones from the first couple rounds. Because of that, I'm going with the Lakers in 6. This time though, I'm rooting for Tyler Dawson.
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