Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Suns Efficiency

The Phoenix Suns have brought their series with the Lakers back to 2-2, and the debate is whether it's been their offense returning, or their new zone defense. Statistically, a simple way to look at it is to check whether the Suns have been scoring more, but a better was is to look at efficiency per possession. One example is to look at the Warriors this year, they had the second highest scoring offense, but only the 14th most efficient (I saw them, and they were definitely closer to 14th). So what's been the Suns' efficiency this season?
Efficiency Game 1 2 3 4
Lakers 1.38 1.24 1.07 1.19
Suns 1.15 1.12 1.16 1.29
Efficiency Lakers Win Suns Win
Lakers 1.31 1.13
Suns 1.14 1.22
So while Los Suns have improved some offensively, it looks like the zone defense has made a big difference in the series. Or maybe its just the Lakers coming back to earth, the averaged 1.06 points per possession during the season.

Also of note is the run of injuries for Boston. Daniels hopefully will be okay, but Davis and actually Pierce may be of concern. It appears Davis suffered a pretty serious concussion, and that's something that can put people out for a couple weeks (even though he may feel fine physically). Paul Pierce's shoulder may also be a concern from when he collapsed on the floor earlier (not that rare, but important here). It looks on the replays like Pierce's shoulder subluxed, meaning it popped out for just an instant, then popped back in. That's a concern for two reasons.
1. It's gonna be weaker for a little while now (maybe a couple days). On his free throws right afterwards both of them hit the front of the rim.
2. It will be reinjured easier now, either subluxing again, or fully dislocating. I know this, because it happened to me recently.
Whether through injuries or zone defense, it looks like we now have two good conference finals on our hands.
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