Sunday, May 2, 2010

One Game Matters

The championship percentages I just put up don't include the first Cavs-Celtics game. What happens if it is included?
Before the series the Cavaliers had a 73% chance of winning the series. Now with their one win they have an 82% chance of winning. Had they lost, it would've been 53%. How does this affect championship odds? With the win they now win the NBA championship 27.7% of the time, as opposed to 18.0% if they had lost. So with just a Game One win (a game they were expected to win anyways) the Cavs have increased their championship odds by 53%. Which just goes to show: in the playoffs every game matters.

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